Climate change

 

Climate change

is not a new issue. The developed world began paying attention to it approximately 25 to 30 years ago, when it noticed that there was a change in the climate, while the developing world did not pay attention to it until recently. The reasons for this phenomenon are due to the increase in rates of industrial human activity, which has led to an increase in the concentration of certain gases in the atmosphere, and the occurrence of what is called “global warming.” The presence of gases such as methane, nitrous monoxide, and carbon dioxide Carbon monoxide and other gases in the atmosphere are a natural presence to preserve the Earth’s temperature during the winter and night periods. Were it not for the presence of these gases in their natural concentrations, the Earth’s temperature in winter would drop to minus 30 degrees Celsius. But with the increase in industrial activity rates - especially in the early 1960s - an increase in the concentrations of these gases began to occur.

The rates of occurrence of these changes

Egypt is located in a poor geographical area and is climatically fragile, as rain does not exceed 100 mm except in the coastal areas in the far northern narrow strip, while in the rest of the regions of the Republic, rain rates are negligible. In southern Egypt, it can reach zero mm. Therefore, Egypt is located in a dry area, in which there is only a thin line rich in water, whose area does not exceed 3 to 4% of the area of ​​Egypt. It is called the Nile River and the Delta, and the rest is desert, which is the area. Which is most affected by climate. Egypt's climate in the north is classified as mostly Mediterranean, while in the south there is a dry and semi-arid climate.

This climate was one of the most stable climates in the world throughout history, as evidenced by the establishment of most civilizations around the Mediterranean basin. This region is distinguished by two very clear climatic seasons: the cold winter and the hot summer. As a result of climate change, there has been an increase in confusion in the climate system, and this system has been subjected to “deformation”, so an increase in severe climatic fluctuations has begun to occur, as well as amounts of rain falling over a limited period of time. , which may cause flash floods, as happened in the Red Sea and Sinai regions

And northern Delta and southern Upper Egypt, or very long heat waves, and sometimes extreme heat waves occur for a day or two at an abnormal time, as happened last May 22, when the temperature in Egypt reached 50 degrees Celsius, and that was the highest temperature on the surface. Earth that day.

So the climate itself changed, and it changed in a dramatic way, and it was assumed, based on existing models, that this change would occur within 10 to 20 years from now, but we were surprised that the change was very rapid, and the dates of its occurrence were early, and this is what caused major problems in The main economic activities in Egypt, especially agricultural activity and what affects food security in Egypt.

The extent to which agricultural crop productivity is affected by climate change

The agricultural sector is the most affected by climate change. This sector was affected by a direct decrease in productivity in some crops and seasons. The summer season of 2018 and the winter season of 2019 gave examples of the impact of climate change. For example, the winter of 2018 was short and the temperatures were in the warm region, which caused In that most deciduous fruit trees and olives did not meet their cold needs, to the point that olive productivity in most areas decreased by more than 70%. In order for these trees to enter the stage of germinating buds in the spring, they must be taken Its cold needs, which affects flowering and set rates, which are two important indicators of productivity levels.

Also, mangoes. When there was a significant increase in heat waves and waves carrying sand and dust in the months of March and April 2018, some fruit trees were in the flowering and contracting stage, such as mangoes and palms, which caused the nodes to fall and fail to reproduce.

As for field crops, potatoes were at the beginning of the planting stage, the first stage of the propagation process, so a wave of very hot winds occurred that affected this stage, which contributed to reducing productivity by about 30 to 40%. Wheat productivity also decreased nationwide in 2018 by about 40%. To 50%, mangoes about 35%, and olives from 70 to 80%. As for summer crops, they were not greatly affected this year, especially cotton, corn, and rice. Because it was not affected by the climatic deterioration that occurred in the spring of 2018.

As for the winter season of 2019, the climate was well suited for the highest productivity of most crops, but it was also suitable for the spread of many diseases and pests at the same time, which caused intense use and large quantities of pesticides.

As for the winter of 2019, there was a strange and epidemic spread of yellow rust on wheat in the Delta regions and Central Egypt on certain varieties sensitive to climate changes, and after that it affected the rest of the other varieties, in addition to the spread of bacterial spot disease on tomato crops, and gummy stem blight on cucurbits.” Cucumbers, cantaloupes, etc. Downy mildew and purple blotch also cause a major problem for onion crops. They are two related diseases. But what is more dangerous than that is that some insects and diseases known to be secondary, subsidiary, or marginal diseases have turned into a major insect and a primary disease that causes an economic problem in the crop, such as the cotton insect and thrips. They had no effect previously, but they have become essential insects with significant impacts on productivity.

Confronting climate change by developing new resistant varieties

Developing varieties that are tolerant to heat and water shortages is one aspect of strategies for adapting to climate change. Developing a high-yielding variety does not mean that it is resistant to climate change, but developing varieties that are resistant to climate change means that they are varieties that are resistant to heat, cold, frost, snowballs, pests, and diseases that appear due to climate change.

With regard to other measures of confrontation, they are represented in the necessity of changing all existing agricultural transactions to suit the current situation of climate change, changing planting dates for many crops, and changing crop structures, meaning that there are specific crops and varieties that are not suitable for cultivation due to climate change, and this is what happened.

Indeed, the farmer is now unable to plant some crops and varieties due to climate change, such as tomatoes in Beni Suef in the summer season, and in Giza Governorate in the early summer season, and like corn in Upper Egypt in the normal summer season in April.

So, there are many measures that must be taken in the field of agriculture to confront climate change, including the development of varieties, and in addition to regionalization measures, we must turn to the concept of increasing the resilience of rural communities against climate change.

The impact of these changes on the Egyptian food security system and the increase in the import volume of strategic crops

In addition to all the recommendations mentioned above, Egypt is a country that suffers from a major problem and an imbalance in the balance of Egyptian food security. We rely on imports to provide many strategic goods, and this represents... great danger; Because any problem that will occur in the production of these crops that we import in production countries will affect our national security in a very strange way. As a result of the scarcity of agricultural resources of land and water, we have a problem in the production of strategic crops. We import more than 33 million tons of agricultural materials.

The negative effects of climate change on Egypt

Egypt is located in North Africa, bordered by the Mediterranean Sea to the north, and the Red Sea to the east. The dominant feature of the northern coastal region is the low-lying Nile River Delta, with its large cities, industrial, agricultural, and tourist areas. The delta and narrow valley of the Nile River make up 5.5% of Egypt's area, but are home to more than 95% of its population and agriculture. Egypt is located between latitudes 22 degrees and 32 degrees north and longitudes 25 degrees and 36 degrees east.

The region known as Upper Egypt is located south of 30 degrees north latitude, and is hot and dry. The northern part of the Nile Delta and the northern coast, known as Lower Egypt, has a Mediterranean or coastal climate. Egypt's large population (about 104 million people) is also among the factors that make the country highly vulnerable to climate change.

Figure 1 shows the eight main regional climate zones in Egypt according to the Housing and Building Research Center (HBRC), based on temperature, humidity, and solar brightness.

Egypt has advanced one place compared to 2019 to rank 21st in the 2021 CCPI, with an overall average rating; The country receives mixed ratings in the four main CCPI categories. For greenhouse gas emissions and energy use, Egypt's performance is rated as high. As for climate policy, Egypt received an average rating, and for renewable energy, it received a very low rating. It is worth noting that Egypt has not set a specific target for greenhouse gas emissions for the year 2050, but the government launched a climate change strategy during the COP26 conference.

Regarding Egypt’s impact on these climate changes, the state, through academic universities, research centers, and national bodies, has implemented many studies to monitor the most important (current and potential) impacts of climate change, to work on developing the necessary strategies and plans to confront it. The most prominent impacts can be explained as follows:

- Increased rates of desertification

Desertification is defined in Article 1 of the United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification as “land degradation in arid, semi-arid and dry regions as a result of multiple factors, including climate change and human activities.” The problem of desertification is one of the most important environmental challenges that Egypt suffers from. Egypt is classified as one of the countries most suffering from the problem. This is according to statistics from the Executive Secretariat of the United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification, which also confirm that 3.5 acres are exposed to desertification every hour, which is considered extremely dangerous, especially since the agricultural area is limited and represents only about 4% of Egypt’s area.

4 - Land quality is affected, agricultural production deteriorates, and food security is affected

Studies used for different climate scenarios confirm the impact of agricultural production on the African continent, including Egypt, and that rising temperatures and changing rainfall patterns will affect the productivity of agricultural crops and livestock, leading to increased rates of poverty and risks and losses in livelihoods (according to the report Fifth Synthesis 2014 Chapter 12 Human Security - Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change). Table No. (1) shows the extent to which some agricultural crops in Egypt will be affected if the temperature rises between 1.5 degrees Celsius and 3.5 degrees Celsius. 4 - Land quality is affected, agricultural production deteriorates, and food security is affected

Studies used for different climate scenarios confirm the impact of agricultural production on the African continent, including Egypt, and that rising temperatures and changing rainfall patterns will affect the productivity of agricultural crops and livestock, leading to increased rates of poverty and risks and losses in livelihoods (according to the report Fifth Synthesis 2014 Chapter 12 Human Security - Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change). Table No. (1) shows the extent to which some agricultural crops in Egypt will be affected if the temperature rises between 1.5 degrees Celsius and 3.5 degrees Celsius.

The Nile River is the main source of water; It provides about 95% of Egypt's water needs, followed by seasonal rains that fall on the coasts of Egypt extending north and east, then groundwater, and the reuse of treated agricultural drainage water. There is still clear uncertainty in future climate predictions about the possibility of an increase or decrease in the Nile River's flow. It is expected that the demand for water will increase with the increase in population in the Nile Basin countries, including the Arab Republic of Egypt. This is why it must be adopted Adaptation measures that adapt to the uncertainty of the Nile River's revenues in light of the potential impacts of climate change on water resources.

6- Deterioration of public health

Climate changes directly affect health through violent weather events such as storms, floods, and high temperatures, or indirectly through biological changes in the extent of the spread of insect-borne diseases such as malaria and others, water-borne pathogens such as schistosomiasis and others, and air quality.